Inventory hits seven-year high as market activity picks up despite sticky rates

(July 16, 2026)—Minnesota’s housing market gained momentum in June as both buyer and seller activity rose despite elevated mortgage rates and ongoing affordability challenges. Signed purchase agreements, closed sales, and new listings all posted solid gains over last year, while inventory continued to recover from historically tight conditions. In fact, June inventory levels reached a seven-year high, and new listings, pending sales and closed sales all hit four-year highs.

An overview shows:

• New listings rose 11.0% statewide and 10.5% in the Twin Cities metro
• Pending sales increased 8.0% statewide and 9.7% in the metro
• The median sales price was up 1.4% statewide and 2.1% in the metro

The latest figures suggest that housing demand didn’t disappear but may have been waiting for more favorable conditions—more supply, slower price growth, wage growth and adjusting to the current rate environment. Rising inflation and stubborn rates remain. But with inventory expanding and buyers gaining more options, the market is transitioning toward a more balanced and functional state compared to the last few years.

Market activity improving across key metrics

Activity improved across nearly every major indicator in June on both sides of the market; an encouraging sign. Statewide pending sales—a leading indicator of future closings—rose 8.0%, while Twin Cities pending sales increased 9.7%. Meanwhile, new listings rose 11.0% statewide and 10.5% across the Twin Cities, offering buyers the largest influx of fresh inventory in months. Rising supply combined with weaker demand can pressure prices. As buyers adjust to higher borrowing costs, sellers are recognizing that today’s conditions require realistic pricing and expectations. As a result, more households are finding ways to move despite rates and affordability concerns.

“It’s encouraging to see more participation from both buyers and sellers,” said Wendy Uzelac, President of Minnesota Realtors^®. “Added inventory is creating opportunities for buyers while rising demand supports sellers. Affordability is still a struggle for many, but June’s numbers suggest Minnesotans are finding ways to move forward despite higher mortgage rates.”

Significant differences between market segments across the state:

• Pending sales under $300K were up 5.2% while sales over $1M increased 42.2%
• Single-family home sales rose 12.0%; condo sales fell 2.7%; townhome sales were up 8.9%
• Previously owned sales were 10.5% higher while new construction sales rallied 17.4%
• Two-bedroom home sales rose 2.7% while four-bedroom home sales were up 12.9%
• Non-waterfront home sales increased 9.4% and private waterfront home sales rose 30.0%
• Sales were up 4.7% in Minneapolis and were 1.4% higher in St. Paul

Sellers more patient and flexible amid longer market times and increased supply

Minnesota ended the month with 19,008 homes for sale, up 7.5% from last year, while Twin Cities inventory increased 5.1% to 10,897 homes. Months’ supply rose to 3.3 months statewide and 2.8 months in the metro. Though modest, those changes are making a meaningful impact on market dynamics. Buyers now have more properties to choose from, more time to evaluate options, and more leverage to negotiate than they did over the last several years. While inventory remains below historical norms and below a balanced market, supply growth is helping to relieve pressure throughout the market.

The rebalancing can also be seen in market times and seller concessions. Homes spent 49 days on the market statewide and 42 days in the metro, both increases from last year. Buyers are more cautious and don’t have the same urgency they had several years ago. Sellers also received slightly less of their asking price, averaging 98.8% statewide and 99.6% in the metro. These are still strong figures by historical standards, but they confirm a less frenzied and more balanced marketplace. “Buyers have more opportunities and more time to make decisions than they did a few years ago,” said Danielle Bickham Pelton, President of the Saint Paul Area Association of REALTORS^®. “The demand is there, but pricing strategy, presentation and condition matter more than ever.”

Home prices remain resilient

Even as inventory improves, home prices are holding firm. The statewide median home price rose 1.4% to $375,000, while the Twin Cities median price rose 2.1% to $410,000. Appreciation has slowed, but price growth remains positive and reflects the ongoing imbalance between supply and demand. Importantly, today’s price gains are more sustainable than those seen during the pandemic-era boom.

Rather than signaling weakness, slower appreciation combined with rising inventory points to a healthier market where buyers have more options, sellers continue to grow equity and prices are more stable. “We’re seeing a healthier balance emerge between buyers and sellers," said Aarica Coleman, President of Minneapolis Area REALTORS^®. “Homes that are priced appropriately are still selling, but buyers have become more selective and are more value conscious.”

Economy and rates

Affordability is the central challenge facing Minnesota’s housing market. The Federal Reserve kicked off summer playing a different tune than markets expected. The new Chair and board left interest rates unchanged and quietly signaled that rate hikes could be just as likely as rate cuts moving forward. This decision was largely driven by May inflation hitting 4.2%, its worst reading since 2023 — as energy costs rose amid the Middle East conflict. Mortgage rates followed suit, drifting up toward 6.6% as renewed conflict made cheap oil less likely. A calmer Middle East and easing cost pressure at home would set the stage for a stronger second half of the year. All real estate remains local and dependent on local jobs, incomes, and housing supply. Despite some uncertainty, homeownership remains an important aspiration for most Minnesotans.

SPAAR works in partnership with Minnesota Realtors^® and Minneapolis Area REALTORS^® to share the housing market statistics each month.